How’d the 2019-20 Bowl Season Go?

Three and a half weeks ago, we laid out our preview of the 2019-20 college bowl games, giving our assigned CFB rankings & power ratings for every matchup.

Our picks were purely based on season-long rankings, and no other intelligence factors. Hierank’s certainty in each pick could be inferred from the difference in power values between the two teams, and by looking at their Volatility ratings and Normal Power ranges.

As a barometer of success, we’ve entered all 40 of our picks at ESPN’s Capital One Bowl Mania, where we can see how our picks rate against ESPN’s entire pool of 500,000 entrants.

So how’d we do? Each result is given with our prediction below, with a performance summary at the bottom.

Important points & reminders:

All rankings are on a #1-256 range, within all of Division I college football, crossing the 130 FBS & 126 FCS teams.

Decimal values shown are each team’s Hierank Power, the total summation of their performance to-date on a 0-100 scale.

Range values (Normal Power) point to likely performance values for that team, with Hierank Power falling in the middle, and a range correlating in size with said team’s Volatility (unpredictability) factor.

More on how Hierank Rates & Ranks teams.

Playoff Results

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

#2 No. 1 LSU (13-0) vs #7 No. 4 Oklahoma (12-1)
93.4, 72-115 Power vs 86.3, 72-101 Power
CORRECT | LSU 63-28

Saturday, Dec. 28, 2019

Football Playoff Semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

#1 No. 2 Ohio State (13-0) vs #3 No. 3 Clemson (13-0)
93.5, 78-109 Power vs 90.5, 78-103 Power
INCORRECT | #3 Clemson 29-23

Saturday, Dec. 28, 2019

College Football Playoff National Championship

Peach Bowl Winner vs Fiesta Bowl Winner
[#2 No. 1 LSU (14-0) vs #1 No. 2 Ohio State (14-0)]
INCORRECT MATCH-UP PREDICTION

Monday, Jan. 13, 2020

Bowl Results

Dec. 20

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl

#76 Buffalo (7-5) vs #124 Charlotte (7-5)
58.2, 39-77 Power vs 50.6, 39-63 Power
CORRECT | #76 Buffalo 31-9

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

#70 Utah State (7-5) vs #122 Kent State (6-6)
59.7, 44-75 Power vs 50.7, 36-65 Power
INCORRECT | #122 Kent State 51-41

Dec. 21

Celebration Bowl

#100 Alcorn State (9-3) vs #91 North Carolina A&T (8-3)
55.3, 40-71 Power vs 56.2, 34-79 Power
CORRECT | #91 North Carolina A&T 64-44

New Mexico Bowl

#104 Central Michigan (8-5) vs #56 San Diego State (9-3)
54.3, 34-74 Power vs 61.6, 45-78 Power
CORRECT | #56 San Diego State 48-11

FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl

#144 Liberty (7-5) vs #81 Georgia Southern (7-5)
47.9, 28-68 Power vs 57.6, 40-75 Power
INCORRECT | Liberty 23-16

Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl

#36 SMU (10-2) vs #31 Florida Atlantic (10-3)
66.7, 58-76 Power vs 67.7, 53-82 Power
CORRECT | #31 Florida Atlantic 52-28

Camellia Bowl

#131 Florida International (6-6) vs #103 Arkansas State (7-5)
50.1, 30-70 Power vs 54.3, 40-69 Power
CORRECT | #103 Arkansas State 34-26

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

#22 Boise State (12-1) vs #20 Washington (7-5)
72.9, 61-85 Power vs 73.8, 52-95 Power
CORRECT | #20 Washington 38-7

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

#25 Appalachian State (12-1) vs #133 UAB (9-4)
72.2, 62-83 Power vs 49.8, 32-67 Power
CORRECT | #25 Appalachian State 31-17

Dec. 23

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl

#29 UCF (9-3) vs #87 Marshall (8-4)
69.6, 50-89 Power vs 56.5, 40-73 Power
CORRECT | #29 UCF 48-25

Dec. 24

SoFi Hawai’i Bowl

#63 Hawai’i (9-5) vs #60 BYU (7-5)
60.8, 45-77 Power vs 61.2, 41-82 Power
INCORRECT | #63 Hawai’i 38-34

Dec. 26

Walk-On’s Independence Bowl

#96 Louisiana Tech (9-3) vs #44 Miami (6-6)
55.8, 42-70 Power vs 64.9, 43-87 Power
INCORRECT | #96 Louisiana Tech 14-0

Quick Lane Bowl

#75 Pittsburgh (7-5) vs #130 Eastern Michigan (6-6)
58.4, 43-74 Power vs 50.1, 33-68 Power
CORRECT | #75 Pittsburgh 34-30

Dec. 27

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

#43 North Carolina (6-6) vs #71 Temple (8-4)
65.5, 53-78 Power vs 59.6, 44-75 Power
CORRECT | #43 North Carolina 55-13

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

#72 Michigan State (6-6) vs #50 Wake Forest (8-4)
59.3, 43-75 Power vs 62.7, 48-78 Power
INCORRECT | #72 Michigan State 27-21

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl

#26 Oklahoma State (8-4) vs #35 Texas A&M (7-5)
72.1, 55-89 Power vs 67.5, 57-78 Power
INCORRECT | Texas A&M 24-21

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl

#16 USC (8-4) vs #28 Iowa (9-3)
74.7, 57-92 Power vs 70.2, 60-81 Power
INCORRECT | #28 Iowa 49-24

Cheez-It Bowl

#30 Air Force (10-2) vs #51 Washington State (6-6)
68.4, 58-79 Power vs 62.6, 47-78 Power
CORRECT | #30 Air Force 31-21

Dec. 28

Camping World Bowl

#9 Notre Dame (10-2) vs #24 Iowa State (7-5)
82.0, 67-97 Power vs 72.5, 60-85 Power
CORRECT | #9 Notre Dame 33-9

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

#15 Penn State (10-2) vs #19 Memphis (12-1)
75.7, 63-88 Power vs 74.0, 62-86 Power
CORRECT | #15 Penn State 53-39

Dec. 30

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

#77 Western Kentucky (8-4) vs #88 Western Michigan (7-5)
58.2, 46-71 Power vs 56.4, 32-80 Power
CORRECT | #77 Western Kentucky 23-20

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

#58 Mississippi State (6-6) vs #45 Louisville (7-5)
61.4, 46-77 Power vs 64.8, 45-84 Power
CORRECT | #45 Louisville 38-28

Redbox Bowl

#49 California (7-5) vs #111 Illinois (6-6)
62.7, 49-77 Power vs 52.6, 35-71 Power
CORRECT | #49 California 35-20

Capital One Orange Bowl

#6 Florida (10-2) vs #42 Virginia (8-5)
86.8, 77-96 Power vs 65.9, 49-83 Power
CORRECT | #6 Florida 36-28

Dec. 31

Belk Bowl

#38 Virginia Tech (8-4) vs #46 Kentucky (7-5)
66.6, 44-89 Power vs 63.7, 43-85 Power
INCORRECT | #46 Kentucky 37-30

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

#47 Florida State (6-6) vs #37 Arizona State (7-5)
63.5, 50-77 Power vs 66.6, 45-88 Power
CORRECT | #37 Arizona State 20-14

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

#27 Navy (9-2) vs #23 Kansas State (8-4)
71.6, 61-82 Power vs 72.8, 51-95 Power
INCORRECT | #27 Navy 20-17

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl

#74 Wyoming (7-5) vs #108 Georgia State (7-5)
58.4, 46-71 Power vs 52.9, 32-74 Power
CORRECT | #74 Wyoming 38-17

Valero Alamo Bowl

#8 Utah (11-2) vs. #21 Texas (7-5)
85.0, 70-100 Power vs 73.5, 57-90 Power
INCORRECT | #21 Texas 38-10

Jan. 1, 2020

Vrbo Citrus Bowl

#14 Michigan (9-3) vs #12 Alabama (10-2)
75.8, 56-96 Power vs 80.3, 70-90 Power
CORRECT | #12 Alabama 35-16

Outback Bowl

#33 Minnesota (10-2) vs #10 Auburn (9-3)
67.7, 55-80 Power vs 81.4, 66-97 Power
INCORRECT | #33 Minnesota 31-24

Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual

#4 Oregon (11-2) vs #11 Wisconsin (10-3)
89.6, 69-110 Power vs 80.5, 62-99 Power
CORRECT | #4 Oregon 28-27

Allstate Sugar Bowl

#5 Georgia (11-2) vs #13 Baylor (11-2)
86.8, 67-107 Power vs 79.3, 62-96 Power
CORRECT | #5 Georgia 26-14

Jan. 2

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

#73 Boston College (6-6) vs #34 Cincinnati (10-3)
59.1, 39-79 Power vs 67.5, 57-78 Power
CORRECT | #34 Cincinnati 38-6

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

#65 Indiana (8-4) vs #40 Tennessee (7-5)
60.3, 49-72 Power vs 66.0, 51-81 Power
CORRECT | #40 Tennessee 23-22

Jan. 3

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

#107 Ohio (6-6) vs #149 Nevada (7-5)
53.5, 42-65 Power vs 47.5, 28-67 Power
CORRECT | #107 Ohio 30-21

Jan. 4

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

#97 Southern Mississippi (7-5) vs #67 Tulane (6-6)
55.7, 36-76 Power vs 60.2, 50-71 Power
CORRECT | #67 Tulane 30-13

Jan. 6

LendingTree Bowl

#41 Louisiana (10-3) vs #106 Miami (Ohio)
65.9, 50-81 Power vs 53.7, 37-71 Power
CORRECT | #41 Louisiana 27-17


Final Assessment

ACCURACY

28 Correct
12 Incorrect
28-12, 70% Correct

RELATIVE SUCCESS

Ranked #23k of 500k
95.5th Percentile

Going into the final game of the college football season, we’re pleased that our picks have performed in-line with the last two years’ outcomes, which beat out 96.2% & 94.1% of this same ESPN fan pool in Jan 2018 & 2019, respectively.

While we didn’t take the Hierank platform as far in the 2019-20 season as we might’ve hoped, it’s encouraging having thrice-confirmed now that we can expect to beat 19 out 20 casual fans when we make our picks.


Immense thanks to all of you who have taken an interest in Hierank this season. Our preview for Monday’s championship game will be live Sunday 1/12, as our last piece of up-to-date football content for the 2019-20 Season.

The plan is to create a few interesting historically-rooted evergreen-lists this off-season, and we would like to launch in August 2020 with a team of both casual & dedicated writers.

Anyone interested in helping write for pay on a unique & growing platform, please contact info@hierank.com by June 30, 2020. Provide your name, contact, and some information regarding your experience or expertise discussing college football. We look forward to hearing from you!

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