A Wayyy Too Early Top 25

NCAA Week 6 Top 25
We don't put our money on anything until after week 6. But we were anxious to show off.

If you’ve read anything on this site, it’s that we don’t stand behind any rankings or ratings that the algorithm comes up with until at least after Week 6.

But we’ve been tooting our own horns so much that we had to give you something…we were just too antsy.

Before you dive in & laugh at our baby for underrating Alabama & Clemson, remember it is just that – a burgeoning AI in its young Week 5 adolescence who doesn’t need to get serious for another one or two cycles. It knows everything that has happened this season as soon we tell it, and it never forgets – but it knows only that.

So it starts a little ignorant – but with zero bias.

But by the end of two seasons it has out-picked 96.2% & 94.1% of 800,000 & 500,000 entrants in ESPN’s Capital One Bowl Mania pick’em, or simpler-put beat 24 out of every 25 and 17 out of every 18 entrants, each year.

It even managed to pick 63% of games correctly this week, with only 4 weeks’ data. It knows everything that’s happened and in the end it always finds The Season’s Final Score.

But with all that out of the way, let’s have fun with some FBS Pre-Week 6 #bogusranks.

As some form of Disclaimer, we’ll assess each Hierank ranking as a truly unnoticed Dark Horse, as being About Right, Not There Yet but rising, or as Fluky Garbage. These labels should be fairly self-explanatory, and being short on time, we don’t feel like saying much else.


#25 Utah State, 70.2 (3-1)

Expected Performance | 56-84 Power
AP Poll | NR
Coaches Poll | #36
ASSESSMENT | Between Fluky Garbage & a Dark Horse

#24 Mississippi State, 70.9 (3-2)

Expected Performance | 62-80 Power
AP Poll | NR
Coaches Poll | #41
ASSESSMENT | Between a Dark Horse & About Right

#23 Oklahoma, 72.2 (4-0)

Expected Performance | 66-78 Power
AP Poll | #6
Coaches Poll | #4
ASSESSMENT | Not There Yet

#22 LSU, 72.5 (4-0)

Expected Performance | 52-93 Power
AP Poll | #5
Coaches Poll | #6
ASSESSMENT | Not There Yet

#21 Cal, 73.8 (3-1)

Expected Performance | 54-93 Power
AP Poll | #27
Coaches Poll | #26
ASSESSMENT | Between Fluky Garbage and About Right.

#20 Clemson, 73.9 (5-0)

Expected Performance | 64-83 Power
AP Poll | #2
Coaches Poll | #2
ASSESSMENT | Not There Yet

#19 Kansas State, 73.9 (3-1)

Expected Performance | 65-83 Power
AP Poll | #36
Coaches Poll | #37
ASSESSMENT | Between About Right and a Dark Horse.

#18 Penn State, 74.7 (4-0)

Expected Performance | 58-92 Power
AP Poll | #12
Coaches Poll | #11
ASSESSMENT Between About Right and Not There Yet

#17 Notre Dame, 74.8 (3-1)

Expected Performance | 73-76 Power
AP Poll | #9
Coaches Poll | #10
ASSESSMENT | Not There Yet. Interestingly the #1 least Volatile (0) team (most consistent) in the entire system. Highlighting their Performance Ratings here for kicks:
(Volatility & Normal Power are shown in the bottom-right)

Through Wins and a Loss, against vastly-different teams, Notre Dame has played with REMARKABLY-consistent Power.
These numbers may be somewhat arbitrary, but as its creator in our third year – that’s the most consistent four week streak of play I have ever noticed.

#16 Wisconsin, 74.9 (4-0)

Expected Performance | 62-88 Power
AP Poll | #8
Coaches Poll | #9
ASSESSMENT | Not There Yet

#15 Air Force, 75.2 (3-1)

Expected Performance | 53-98 Power
AP Poll | NR
Coaches Poll | #41
ASSESSMENT | Fluky Garbage threatening to be a Dark Horse. HR #45 Navy, #26 Hawai’i, and #25 Utah State games the next four weeks will say a lot.

#14 Michigan State, 75.7 (4-1)

Expected Performance | 66-85 Power
AP Poll | #25
Coaches Poll | #23
ASSESSMENT | Between About Right & a Dark Horse

#13 Missouri, 76.1 (3-1)

Expected Performance | 63-90 Power
AP Poll | #31
Coaches Poll | NR
ASSESSMENT | Not this good, but definitely a Dark Horse

#12 Colorado, 76.2 (3-1)

Expected Performance | 50-102 Power
AP Poll | #32
Coaches Poll | #33
ASSESSMENT | Fluky Garbage. They’ll lose a third of their remaining games

#11 Oklahoma State, 76.6 (4-1)

Expected Performance | 62-91 Power
AP Poll | #21
Coaches Poll | #25
ASSESSMENT | Dark Horse. They’ll get to & stay around mid-teen-rankings, losing only 2-3 more games.

#10 Oregon, 77.3 (3-1)

Expected Performance | 66-89 Power
AP Poll | #13
Coaches Poll | #13
ASSESSMENT | About Right to potentially a little of a Dark Horse. Only loss is close to a very strong Auburn team, with dominant wins otherwise.

#9 Alabama, 77.5 (5-0)

Expected Performance | 66-89 Power
AP Poll | #1
Coaches Poll | #1
ASSESSMENT | Obviously Not There Yet

#8 Texas, 78.2 (3-1)

Expected Performance | 59-98 Power
AP Poll | #11
Coaches Poll | #12
ASSESSMENT | About Right

#7 Georgia, 78.3 (4-0)

Expected Performance | 66-91 Power
AP Poll | #3
Coaches Poll | #3
ASSESSMENT | Maybe About Right, Maybe Not There Yet

#6 Boise State, 78.4 (4-0)

Expected Performance | 59-98 Power
AP Poll | #16
Coaches Poll | #15
ASSESSMENT | Between Fluky Garbage and About Right. Won’t stay this high unless it eviscerates its whole list of sub-par opponents.

#5 Florida, 78.4 (5-0)

Expected Performance | 71-86 Power
AP Poll | #10
Coaches Poll | #8
ASSESSMENT | Between About Right and Fluky Garbage will lose 2-4 of its remaining seven games.

#4 Washington, 80.7 (4-1)

Expected Performance | 69-92 Power
AP Poll | #15
Coaches Poll | #16
ASSESSMENT | Fluky Garbage. Bad opponents with good records are giving it a temporary algo-boost.

#3 Auburn, 82.2 (5-0)

Expected Performance | 72-92 Power
AP Poll | #7
Coaches Poll | #7
ASSESSMENT | Just About Right. Probably a touch over-rated, but next week vs Florida will say a lot.

#2 Arizona State, 82.7 (4-1)

Expected Performance | 69-97 Power
AP Poll | #20
Coaches Poll | #28
ASSESSMENT | Fluky Garbage getting an algorithm boost for being the only loss to two different teams and losing to only one mediocre team with a good record.

#1 Ohio State, 83.8 (5-0)

Expected Performance | 75-92 Power
AP Poll | #4
Coaches Poll | #5
ASSESSMENT | With the third most First Place votes in both polls, it pains me to say this is probably About Right. Maybe Sparty will hurt them next week. One can dream.

NOTABLY MISSING

AP, Coaches Ranking

  • #14, #14 Iowa (4-0)
  • #17, #17 Utah (4-1)
  • #18, #19 UCF (4-1)
  • #19, #19 Michigan (3-1)
  • #22, #20 Wake Forest (5-0)
  • #23, #22 Virginia (4-1)
  • #25, #21 Texas A&M (3-2)
  • NR, #23 Memphis (4-0)
  • #24, NR SMU (5-0)
Week 5 Top 25

What do you think? Is Hierank on the right track to claim accuracy after next week?

Leave your comments in the box below! Thank you.

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