Let’s Preview ‘THE GAME’

Ohio State at Michigan 2019

DISCLAIMER:
This will be a quantitative analysis only. It won’t mention players or coaches, or consider factors like injuries or schematic match-ups. Author doesn’t have enough up-to-date knowledge to consider all of these, and will therefore consider none.
Instead we’ll focus using proprietary ‘Game Power’ ratings that Hierank produces week-to-week.
If you can add better insights to analyses like these, please do! Paid writer positions available, email info@hierank.com.


Snapshots

A quick look at the performance of each team, to-date.

REMINDER:
For all power ratings, ‘50.0’ represents the average performance of all teams in Division I.
All rankings are within the whole CFB, and therefor extend #1-256, including all FBS & FCS teams.


Ohio State Buckeyes logo

#1 Ohio State (Away)

Ohio State 2019 Schedule-Results

OVERALL: 90.2 (11-0)

42 Volatility, 72-108 Normal Power

HOME POWER: 96.7 (7-0)
AWAY POWER: 78.8 (4-0)

Top Three Weeks:

  1. 42-0 W vs #33 Cincinnati (119)
  2. 38-7 W vs #12 Wisconsin (117)
  3. 28-17 W vs #13 Penn State (103)

Worst Three Weeks:

  1. 56-21 W @ #213 Rutgers (59)
  2. 34-10 W vs #64 Michigan State (79)
  3. 73-14 W vs #147 Maryland (79)

Michigan Wolverines logo

#15 Michigan (Home)

Michigan 2019 Schedule-Results

OVERALL: 77.2 (9-2)

56 Volatility, 57-98 Normal Power

HOME POWER: 83.7 (6-0)
AWAY POWER: 69.6 (3-2)

Top Three Weeks:

  1. 45-14 W vs #8 Notre Dame (130)
  2. 10-3 W vs #23 Iowa (90)
  3. 44-10 W vs #64 Michigan State (83)

Worst Three Weeks:

  1. 14-35 L @ #12 Wisconsin (55)
  2. 24-21 2OT W vs #104 Army (59)
  3. 21-28 L @ #13 Penn State (63)

Comparison Breakdown


Schedule Difficulty

MICHIGAN
#80 Average Opponent, 61 Power

OHIO STATE
#88 Average Opponent, 58 Power

VERDICT:
MICHIGAN


Destination Power

MICHIGAN AT HOME
83.7 Power (6-0)

OHIO STATE AWAY
78.8 Power (4-0)

VERDICT:
MICHIGAN


Adjusted Destination Power

(Average of Overall + Home/Away)

MICHIGAN OVERALL & AT HOME
80.5 Power

OHIO STATE OVERALL & AT HOME
84.5 Power

VERDICT:
OHIO STATE


Season Trending

MICHIGAN

Game 12 Performance Plotter Prediction – 94.6 Power

OHIO STATE

Game 12 Performance Plotter Prediction – 82.8 Power

VERDICT:
MICHIGAN, STRONGLY


Shared Opponents Power

vs #64 Michigan State, #59 Indiana, #12 Wisconsin, #147 Maryland, #213 Rutgers, #13 Penn State

MICHIGAN
72 Power (4-2)

OHIO STATE
88 Power (6-0)

VERDICT:
OHIO STATE, STRONGLY


Standard Performance Power

MICHIGAN
77.2 Power, 56 Volatility, 57-98 Normal Power

OHIO STATE
90.2 Power, 42 Volatility, 72-108 Normal Power


FINAL VERDICT

Ohio State has the upper hand in most areas, and has played better throughout the season as well as against opponents that both teams have faced.

But don’t write off the up-trending Wolverine squad with a substantial Home field performance advantage.

Ohio State probably, but the good guys have a shot. 😛



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