The Ultimate 2018-19 Bowl Picker’s Preview

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As Bowl Season 2019 heats up, so is Hierank! This is our second ‘Go!’ at making bowl predictions; our first time doing so publicly.

Last year, we managed to clear 96% of the field in ESPN’s Capital One Bowl Mania, ranking around 34,000 out of over 850,000 entrants with 25 correct selections…but still landing second in our pool. 🙁

This year, Hierank reveals a good variety of too-close-to-call matchups, obvious calls, possible [real] upsets, and likely “upsets” too.

The method used to pick games last year & below is our ‘Quick Pick’ method, where we choose by Hierank Power alone, and no other factors.

Given more technical-capability – smarter algorithmic choices like giving more weight to shared opponents, late-season games, & similar playing conditions could be used to improve future accuracy.

Each team’s Volatility & Normal Power signal the level of certainty that can be applied to each pick too, aside from their difference in Power.

If these terms – Hierank Power, Volatility, Normal Power – are meaningless to you, take a quick look at the Hierank basics.

And you likely haven’t browsed the actual ranking prototype either. You’ll want to view that eventually, but on a tablet or desktop.

For those already wondering, Hierank’s current form doesn’t directly address the spread, but its methodology does have the ability to calculate expected spreads, with more computing power & time to make that a focus.

Even without an “expected spreads” cheat-sheet – between the perfectly quantified whole-season ratings below, insights deeper in the prototype, offline scouting news & intel, and a little luck – those who apply this knowledge this year will be feared by friends & Vegas alike.

Happy picking!
Hierank

p.s. If time allows before games start, greater analysis will be added to major contests. A post-bowl review will also be published. Without further ado…


Note: All rankings shown below refer to Hierank’s own FBS Rankings, and not those of the selection committee.

College Football Playoff

Saturday, Dec. 29

Semifinal: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

(13-0) #2 Clemson 94.7 vs (12-0) #5 Notre Dame 86.0

Semifinal: Capital One Orange Bowl

 (13-0) #1 Alabama 98.1 vs (12-1) #4 Oklahoma 87.7

Monday, Jan. 7

National Championship Presented by AT&T

Cotton Bowl Winner vs. Orange Bowl Winner


Bowl Schedule

Saturday, Dec. 15

Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl

(9-2) FCS#40 North Carolina A&T 48.9 vs (9-3) FCS#39 Alcorn State 48.9

New Mexico Bowl

(9-3) #75 North Texas 57.7 vs (10-2) #44 Utah State 65.5

AutoNation Cure Bowl

(6-6) #87 Tulane 54.7 vs (7-6) #84 Louisiana 54.8

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

(11-2) #24 Fresno State 73.0 vs (7-5) #49 Arizona State 64.3

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl

(9-3) #54 Georgia Southern 61.5 vs (7-5) #68 Eastern Michigan 59.9

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

(8-4) #71 Middle Tennessee 58.7 vs (10-2) #33 Appalachian State 69.5

Tuesday, Dec. 18

Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl

(10-3) #63 UAB 60.5 vs (8-5) #78 Northern Illinois 56.2

Wednesday, Dec. 19

DXL Frisco Bowl

(7-5) #81 San Diego State 56.1 vs (8-4) #64 Ohio 60.4

Thursday, Dec. 20

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl

(8-4) #74 Marshall 58.1 vs (7-5) #91 South Florida 52.9

Friday, Dec. 21

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl

(8-4) #89 FIU 53.5 vs (7-5) #73 Toledo 58.3

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

(7-5) #94 Western Michigan 51.5 vs (6-6) #62 BYU 60.7

Saturday, Dec. 22

Jared Birmingham Bowl

(8-5) #61 Memphis 60.8 vs (6-6) #57 Wake Forest 61.1

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

(8-4) #77 Houston 56.8 vs (9-2) #31 Army 70.5

Dollar General Bowl

(10-3) #67 Buffalo 60.0 vs (9-3) #65 Troy 60.3

SoFi Hawai’i Bowl

(7-5) #95 Louisiana Tech 50.4 vs (8-5) #96 Hawaii 50.2

Wednesday, Dec. 26

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

(7-5) #42 Boston College 66.4 vs (10-3) #34 Boise State 69.1

Quick Lane Bowl

(6-6) #51 Minnesota 63.2 vs (7-5) #41 Georgia Tech 67.0

Cheez-It Bowl

(7-5) #56 California 61.3 vs (6-6) #38 TCU 67.7

Thursday, Dec. 27

Walk-On’s Independence Bowl

(8-4) #50 Temple 63.6 vs (7-5) #47 Duke 64.5

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

(7-5) #40 Miami 67.0 vs (7-5) #48 Wisconsin 64.4

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl

(6-6) #55 Baylor 61.4 vs (6-6) #45 Vanderbilt 65.2

Friday, Dec. 28

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

(6-6) #29 Purdue 71.0 vs (7-5) #25 Auburn 72.1

Camping World Bowl

(8-3) #9 West Virginia 79.6 vs (9-3) #26 Syracuse 71.8

Valero Alamo Bowl

(8-4) #23 Iowa State 73.3 vs (10-2) #10 Washington State 78.5

Saturday, Dec. 29

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

(9-3) #16 Florida 76.5 vs (10-2) #6 Michigan 85.2

Belk Bowl

(7-5) #27 South Carolina 71.2 vs. (7-5) #52 Virginia 62.7

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl

(8-4) #69 Arkansas State 59.3 vs (7-5) #90 Nevada 53.2

Monday, Dec. 31

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

(10-2) #28 Cincinnati 71.0 vs (6-6) #70 Virginia Tech 59.1

Hyundai Sun Bowl

(8-4) #20 Stanford 74.4 vs (7-6) #35 Pittsburgh 68.0

Redbox Bowl

(7-5) #39 Michigan State 67.2 vs (8-4) #36 Oregon 67.9

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

(8-4) #11 Missouri 77.9 vs (6-6) #37 Oklahoma State 67.7

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl

(8-5) #32 Northwestern 69.7 vs (9-4) #17 Utah 76.2

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

(9-3) #30 NC State 70.6 vs (8-4) #21 Texas A&M 74.4

Tuesday, Jan. 1

Outback Bowl

(8-4) #19 Mississippi State 75.0 vs (8-4) #13 Iowa 77.1

VRBO Citrus Bowl

(9-3) #22 Kentucky 73.4 vs (9-3) #12 Penn State 77.5

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

(9-3) #14 LSU 77.1 vs (12-0) #15 UCF 76.9

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual

(10-3) #8 Washington 80.7 vs (12-1) #7 Ohio State 84.6

Allstate Sugar Bowl

(9-4) #18 Texas 75.4 vs (11-2) #3 Georgia 89.8

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