By our quick unverified count, Hierank correctly picked 32 of 50 FBS games in Week 7. After mathematically considering every match-up & point, these have been the 25 best-performing teams through the first seven weeks.
For Newcomers:
As Hierank’s straight ranking formula matures week-over-week, we like to attach the following labels to each ranking as our form of human disclaimer to some of the Hierank algorithm’s more obtuse-looking results:
- Dark Horse [BEST]
Meaning we believe Hierank’s AI is on to something that the media & fan zeitgeist hasn’t yet figured out. Our favorite label. - About Right [GOOD]
We’re proud that this spreadsheet-driven score comparison tool is ranking teams verrry close to where the experts seem to be. - Not There Yet [OKAY]
Team quite arguably should be in a different, but not far-off position. Match-up realities have them off-kilter so far, but they are moving in the right direction and will ultimately land accurately. - Fluky Garbage [DAMMIT]
Bizarre result; don’t look! These embarrassing outcomes are typically due to lack of many games early on, or true upsets between teams that share few opponents. They are fewer in number as the season progresses & eventually disappear.
#25 Baylor, 70.6 (6-0)
Expected Performance | 54-87 Power
AP Poll | #18
Coaches Poll | #18
Last Week Hierank | #35
About Right
#24 Hawai’i, 71.0 (4-2)
Expected Performance | 57-85 Power
AP Poll | #NR
Coaches Poll | #NR
Last Week Hierank | #12
Between Not There Yet & Dark Horse
#23 Appalachian State, 71.3 (5-0)
Expected Performance | 65-78 Power
AP Poll | #24
Coaches Poll | #24
Last Week Hierank | #39
About Right
#22 Arizona State, 71.5 (5-1)
Expected Performance | 57-86 Power
AP Poll | #17
Coaches Poll | #17
Last Week Hierank | #15
About Right
#21 USC, 72.3 (3-3)
Expected Performance | 54-91 Power
AP Poll | #33
Coaches Poll | NR
Last Week Hierank | #22
Between Dark Horse & Not There Yet
#20 UCF, 72.4 (4-2)
Expected Performance | 93-51 Power
AP Poll | #35
Coaches Poll | #37
Last Week Hierank | #25
Between About Right & Not There Yet
#19 Iowa State, 72.7 (4-2)
Expected Performance | 60-85 Power
AP Poll | #27
Coaches Poll | #31
Last Week Hierank | #30
Between a Dark Horse & About Right
#18 Cal, 72.9 (4-2)
Expected Performance | 55-91 Power
AP Poll | #30
Coaches Poll | #30
Last Week Hierank | #18
Not There Yet
#17 Utah, 73.7 (5-1)
Expected Performance | 61-86 Power
AP Poll | #13
Coaches Poll | #14
Last Week Hierank | #27
About Right
#16 Texas, 76.4 (4-2)
Expected Performance | 67-85 Power
AP Poll | #15
Coaches Poll | #15
Last Week Hierank | #16
About Right
#15 Missouri, 77.0 (5-1)
Expected Performance | 62-92 Power
AP Poll | #22
Coaches Poll | NR
Last Week Hierank | #10
Hierank’s rankings Dark Horse, for now.
#14 Boise State, 77.5 (6-0)
Expected Performance | 65-90 Power
AP Poll | #14
Coaches Poll | #13
Last Week Hierank | #26
About Right
#13 Penn State, 77.7 (6-0)
Expected Performance | 64-91 Power
AP Poll | #7
Coaches Poll | #7
Last Week Hierank | #11
Between About Right and Not There Yet
#12 Oklahoma, 79.0 (6-0)
Expected Performance | 67-91 Power
AP Poll | #5
Coaches Poll | #5
Last Week Hierank | #8
Between About Right and Not There Yet
#11 Clemson, 79.2 (6-0)
Expected Performance | 70-88 Power
AP Poll | #3
Coaches Poll | #2
Last Week Hierank | #17
Between About Right and Not There Yet
#10 Washington, 79.4 (5-2)
Expected Performance | 59-99 Power
AP Poll | #25
Coaches Poll | 23
Last Week Hierank | #6
Between Not There Yet & Fluky Garbage.
#9 Georgia, 79.8 (5-1)
Expected Performance | 61-99 Power
AP Poll | #10
Coaches Poll | #10
Last Week Hierank | #9
About Right
#8 Notre Dame, 81.1 (5-1)
Expected Performance | 71-91 Power
AP Poll | #8
Coaches Poll | #8
Last Week Hierank | #13
About Right
#7 Alabama, 82.3 (6-0)
Expected Performance | 69-96 Power
AP Poll | #1
Coaches Poll | #1
Last Week Hierank | #7
Not There Yet
#6 LSU, 84.0 (6-0)
Expected Performance | 57-110 Power
AP Poll | #2
Coaches Poll | #3
Last Week Hierank | #14
About Right
#5 Auburn, 86.4 (5-1)
Expected Performance | 66-107 Power
AP Poll | #11
Coaches Poll | #11
Last Week Hierank | #3
Between Dark Horse & Not There Yet
#4 Florida, 87.3 (6-1)
Expected Performance | 70-104 Power
AP Poll | #9
Coaches Poll | #9
Last Week Hierank | #4
Between About Right & Not There Yet
#3 Wisconsin, 88.4 (6-0)
Expected Performance | 72-105 Power
AP Poll | #6
Coaches Poll | #6
Last Week Hierank | #5
About Right
#2 Ohio State, 88.7 (6-0)
Expected Performance | 78-100 Power
AP Poll | #4
Coaches Poll | #4
Last Week Hierank | #1
About Right
#1 Oregon, 91.0 (5-1)
Expected Performance | 81-101 Power
AP Poll | #12
Coaches Poll | #12
Last Week Hierank | #2
Between a Dark Horse & Fluky Garbage. The hierarchical factor can elevate more-isolated clusters of teams early on if they happen to win critical non-conference games. Such is the case with the Pac 12 so far in 2019. That said, Oregon is arguably the Pac 12’s sneaky-best team so far this season.